Professor Leach’s polite way of telling Albertans that Conservatives are Gaslighting them:
“They’re selling you a bill of goods.”
Some politicians and industry representatives are misrepresenting the real issues facing the sector
EXCERPTS: “The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers is quick to tell you: “Pipeline constraints, a lack of market diversity, and inefficient regulations are largely responsible for holding back Canada’s oil sector.”
Ask Premier Jason Kenney, and it’s the failed policies of Prime Minister Trudeau or former premier Rachel Notley. You’re to believe that domestic policies have caused production growth rates to be lower by half than what was foretold in 2014, and that this slowdown can be solved by changing those policies.”
There are four major issues affecting the oilsands.
First, and by a long shot the most important, is the sustained decline in global crude oil price outlooks. Even if we had seamless market access, the long term expected market value of oilsands production has dropped significantly from 2014 levels.
Market access is the second big factor. In a low price environment, additional uncertainty and/or increased transportation costs matter a lot.
The third factor is a global reduction in oil investment and a shift toward short-cycle investments. Oilsands are as long-cycle as investments get.
Finally, climate change pressures on global supermajors like Shell, Exxon-Mobil and Total mean that investments in the oilsands are hard to sell to shareholders and lenders alike.
In a world with cheap oil, challenging pipeline construction, a shift toward short-cycle investment, and the combined forces of alternative energy innovation and action on climate change, the oilsands are in for a rough ride.
Our politicians and industry lobby groups, which influence both policies and the public’s understanding of these issues, would be well-served to make sure people are clued-in to this reality, rather than blaming everything on Trudeau and Notley.
They should think about these factors carefully and prepare for them, rather than promising a return to the boom times that they’ll likely be unable to deliver.”
EXCERPTS: “An open letter from oil sands CEOs to Canadians, published Thursday in newspapers across the country, finally exposes the political fault lines in the Calgary-based oil and gas sector. The CEOs are now aggressively selling their decarbonizing strategy in a bid for greater public support, a strategy the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) and the Jason Kenney government have rejected.
CAPP supported also Kenney’s ridiculous $30 million “energy war room” and the $2.5 million public inquiry into “foreign-funded activism,” despite Energi Media thoroughly debunking the conspiracy narrative of Vancouver blogger Vivian Krause that served as the rationale for those initiatives.
[See our blog article on debunking Krause]
Under McMillan’s leadership, CAPP has morphed from a policy advocacy trade group to a partisan political organization, a de facto arm of the UCP provincially and Andrew Scheer’s CPC federally.”
Is your neighbor or relative surreptitiously conducting barbaric foreign practices against Alberta? Is he/she an Agent of the dangerous foreign-funded campaign to land-lock AB’s oil & gas? There’s now a snitch line to report them.
“Authoritarian governments moving in lockstep to discredit environmentalists
Everything you think you know about the foreign funding conspiracy is false”
The world is facing the most pressing moral imperative in the history of human civilization, and Jason Kenney’s inquiry has all but criminalized opposition to fossil fuel expansion, before a single witness is called.”
Not to be outdone, Federal Conservatives and political pundits also gaslight Canada on pipelines
More to follow